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Can the PRC dominate the Pacific in the next 15 years?
The Heart of the Matter
Most often the issue discussed by American defense thinking has been from an American viewpoint–What should America be doing to address the rapid modernization of the Peoples Liberation Army( PLA). We have opened this SLD Forum by reversing that paradigm.
[ Read more ]Factoids
The Chinese Approach: Go
A 2,000-year-old board game holds the key to understanding how the Chinese really think—and U.S. officials had better learn to play if they want to win the real competition….. Go features multiple battles over a wide front, rather than a …
China Versus India R and D
China is fast catching up with India as a destination for foreign investment in proprietary research and development, and could come to knock India from one of the few economic perches in which it is ahead of its northern neighbor, …
Mulling Through US Policy in the Pacific
Cost will play “more and more significantly” in the realignment of US military forces in Japan, South Korea, and Guam, said Adm. Mike Mullen, Joint Chiefs Chairman. “The affordability aspect of this is much more intense in this discussion than it’s …
China Looms Large For New Indian Air Force Chief
The Indian air force (IAF) has long had big ambitions, and the pending arrival of a new leader with a broad agenda indicates there will be no easing up in efforts to strengthen the service’s capabilities…. The foreign hardware inflow …
Asia-Pacific Countries Seek ASW Helos To Counter China
China’s growing submarine fleet worries many countries in the Asia-Pacific region and will lead some to boost their anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities….. Countries in Asia are evaluating ASW helicopters as a matter of urgency because all are concerned about China’s …
China’s Strategic Arctic Interest
As polar ice caps melt, China is preparing to take advantage of potential opportunities that have broad national security implications, including new shipping routes along the Arctic rim and massive hydrocarbon reserves of oil and gas under the Arctic. Though most …
Evolving Chinese Relationship with Pakistan
Pakistan’s defense minister said China has agreed to take over operation of the strategically positioned but underused port of Gwadar, and that Islamabad would like the Chinese to build a base there for the Pakistani navy….. Mr. Mukhtar made the …
Enter the dragon: inside China’s new model navy
The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has drawn world attention with its rapid modernisation and expansion in recent years. In the early days of the current Libyan crisis, the PLAN sent one of …
The Indian Combat Aircraft Downselect
Even as India’s advantage over Pakistan diminishes, it has China to consider – not because a war is probable, or even plausible, but because militaries must plan and be prepared for worst-case scenarios. For much of its history, China’s People’s …
Taiwan Needs F-16s
Taiwan’s President Ma Ying-jeou renewed his call Thursday on the United States to sell F-16 fighter jets to the island, saying he needed leverage as he pursues reconciliation with China….Ma said: “The right leverage must be in place, otherwise Taiwan …
Need for US Policy on Critical Minerals
In Elements of Security and a recent op-ed, Parthemore explains the role rare earth elements and other minerals play in key defense technologies and civil society and what short- or long-term supply disruptions would mean for U.S. national security. Rare earth …
Russia, Japan and China
China’s growing military might compelled Japan and Russia, long at odds over a territorial feud, to take a brief time out from their longstanding tiff in 2007 and take on a more cooperative view towards one another, according to a …
The R and D Enigma
As Dr. Malmgren noted, a key to whether the PRC dominates the Pacific in the next 15 years of what the U.S. and its allies don’t do. These comments below from Satellite Today underscore what the U.S. might well not …
India and Space Security
Indian speakers and participants at the January conference in New Delhi raised several common themes. First, most believe that of course India needs to have an ASAT program: no question about it in their minds, as they see it as …
A U.S. Manufacturing Recovery Vis a Vis China?
A study scheduled to be released on May 5 by Boston Consulting Group argues that the U.S. is headed for a “manufacturing renaissance” over the next five years. The mainland’s pay advantage over the U.S. is eroding because Chinese wages …
Drug smugglers in minisubs hunted by Seattle Coast Guard crews
The Coast Guard Cutter Midgett and its crew of 160, based in Seattle, were a long way from home. The cutter had traveled some 4,500 miles south in the Pacific Ocean, and on Jan. 20 was 335 miles off Costa Rica. …
Why China Is Hoarding Rare Earths
….Put simply, China needs to ensure that its factory assembly lines are always provided with raw materials so that there will be no — or very limited — layoffs, ever…even if this means that excess inventory keeps piling up. China’s …
A Call for More Coast Guard in the Pacific
The US has the largest Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in the world (roughly 12,000,000 sq.km.), and roughly a fourth of it is in the Pacific, far south of Alaska, and west of Hawaii, in fact much more of it than …
Chinese Global Investment Trends
Flush with capital from its enormous trade surpluses and armed with the world’s largest foreign exchange reserves, China has begun spreading its newfound riches to every corner of the world — whether copper mines in Africa, iron ore facilities in …
Questionable Expenditures
Oil companies usually focus on barrels, but Chinese petroleum giant Sinopec is struggling to get a grip on bottles — or, to be more precise, 1,176 bottles of Chateau Lafite Rothschild and expensive Chinese liquor. The alcohol, purchased with $245,000 …
Tech Impetus Swings East
By Nick Clayton http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703712504576244681271274292.html Mr. Zennström warns that Europe’s legacy businesses may become a hindrance: “BRIC countries’ companies and start-ups are incredibly entrepreneurial and really focused on building their future rather than defending the past.” And European firms need to …
India’s Rejection of US Aircraft as Seen by China
Chinese netizens interested in strategic issues have been showing interest in India’s reported decision to go for European jet fighters for its Air Force in preference to the aircaft offered by US companies. They see this as a possible reflection …
Chinese foreign direct investment: What’s happening behind the headlines?
Chinese foreign direct investment: What’s happening behind the headlines?
China’s Growing Influence on Greek Economy
The Mediterranean country of Greece is placing a serious emphasis on foreign investors–especially from China.
Chinese Icebreakers
The “reluctant” character of the U.S. as an Arctic power.
China’s Rise
The presumption that there is room for China in the US-defined and US-led global world order has proven to be flawed.
Charm Offensive
The charm offensive conducted by China over the past decade.
The Beijing Consensus: How China’s Authoritarian Model Will Dominate the Twenty-First Century
What will a Chinese brand of capitalism look like?
When China Rules the World
When China Rules the World
Globality
China’s Iron Lady, Baosteel has developed into one of the world’s most successful steel companies.
From Chinese Soft Power and Its Implications for the United States
China’s investment strength is arguably its mnost significant and effective soft-power instrument.
ITC Describes Chinese Intellectual Property Practices
ITC Describes Chinese Intellectual Property Practices
Gulf to Remain Prime Theater for Iranian Deterrence
Iran can target any point within the Strait of Hormuz and much of the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman with C-802 anti-ship missiles bought from China.
High Tech CEO Wonders if Silicon Valley Will Look Like Shenango Valley
More favorable to do a startup in Communist China than it is in the heart of Silicon Valley?
Losing Aerospace?
United States Is On The Verge Of Losing Its Aerospace Industry, Analyst Warns
Major Holders of US Treasury Securities as of January 2011
Major Holders of US Treasury Securities as of January 2011
Military Diplomacy with China
Little progress has been achieved in the military dialogue between the United States and the PRC during the past two decades.
Top Container Ports
Shanghai and Hong Kong are two of the top three container ports in the world.
Top Holders of Foreign Currency Reserves
| 1 |  People’s Republic of China |
$ 2850 (Dec 2010)[2] |
Geopolitics in a Time of Rapid Technological Change
China and India are in good position to regain their domination by the year 2050.
The Chinese Government and the Management of Dissent
June 15, 2011
Are there moral issues affecting the contest in the Pacific? The Chinese Crackdown Carried Out by the Neo-Red Guards Predates the “Jasmine Revolution.” Steven W. Mosher President, Population Research Institute www.pop.org Excerpts from Testimony Presented to the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on …
Terrorist-Criminal Pipelines and Criminalized States
June 15, 2011
One of the Most Under-reported National Security Issues in the 21st Century by Douglas Farah, National Defense University Press, PRISM 2 no. 3 Douglas Farah is a Senior Fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center On July 1, 2010, …
Trashing the Tawain Relations Act?
June 3, 2011
Rick Fisher of the International Assessment and Strategy Center suggested the US secretary of defense may have made an ‘awful blunder’ By William Lowther / Staff Reporter in WASHINGTON US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has indicated for the first …
Have We Experienced the Dawn of the Chinese Century?
June 1, 2011
As Second Line of Defense completes its first issues forum, I offer a final thought from a different perspective on Chinese influence…both on a regional and world scale. We don’t have to wait 15 years for the PRC to dominate …
Can the U.S. Meet the Challenge of the Evolving Pacific?
May 29, 2011
Dr. Malmgren has underscored in his analysis of alternative futures for the PRC in the 15 years ahead, that there is no inevitability of the dominance by the PRC in the Pacific. Much of this depends on what the U.S. …
While North Korea and Iran collaborate, China covers up
May 24, 2011
A new UN report documents that Iran is working with North Korea in developing ballistic missile technology. Specifically, the report finds that the two nations are transferring prohibited “ballistic missile-related items” via air shipments, in direct violation of UN sanctions. …
Impact on American Jobs
May 20, 2011
In his article on the USCG and the Pacific, Dr. Laird has developed most effectively the vital role played by our Coast Guard in the Pacific and dozens of other places. He’s demonstrated the critical need to ensure they have …
Rafale and the Indian Fighter Competition
May 16, 2011
The French Rafale is one of the two European aircraft downselected in the Indian fighter competition. Although the plane has yet to win an export order, the flagship Dassault combat aircraft has progressed to the point that India as well …
Shaping a 21st Century Pacific Engagement
May 15, 2011
Dr. Malmgren has raised the core point that for the PRC to become dominant in the Pacific, the U.S. and its allies need to fail to respond to the challenge. The question this raises is what is necessary for a …
Can the PRC Dominate the Pacific in the Next 15 Years?
May 15, 2011
The China we have known in the last 15 years will not likely be the China of the next 15 years. The extent to which China can project power in the next 15 years depends upon China’s internal economic and …
Eurofighter, Europe and India
May 14, 2011
What are the strategic potentials of a Eurofighter in India from an industrial point of view? Much depends on what India is able to do and can re-organize itself to do. If properly organized, India could shape a significant aerospace …
Black Swans and the Pacific Future
May 9, 2011
Nassium Nicholas Taleb has written an extremely insightful book on ‘the impact of the highly improbable.” His title The Black Swan is an excellent metaphor-after all everyone knew all swans were white until they were not. It took a voyage …
The USCG and the Pacific
May 9, 2011
Whilst the Administration is reducing the numbers of USCG cutters in the Pacific and arguing against the full number of replacement cutters and the building of a new Offshore Patrol Cutter, the need for an expanded USCG capability is going …
Littoral Challenges Facing the US Navy in the Pacific
May 7, 2011
Rear Admiral Jim Beebe USN, retired, currently the Executive Director of the Naval Air Force, U.S. Pacific Fleet. We have a certain way of defining littorals today. The whole issue of anti-access area denial as influenced from the land base …
The Geopolitical Dynamic and the Indian Fighter Competition
May 7, 2011
Amazingly, U.S. analysts are not focusing at all on last week’s news regarding the Indian downselect of European fighters. And to make sure that this unpleasant news has no political impact, the Administration explains that is all about the transfer …
With the Rise of China, the Russians and South Koreans Augment Their Arms Trade
May 6, 2011
South Korea is an attractive defense market due to its large economy and justifiable need for military equipment to defend against a North Korean threat. The United States is the main supplier of imported weapons to the Republic of Korea …
Key Questions in the Indian Fighter Competition
May 5, 2011
Downselects can take awhile in India. Just ask BAE about their experience with the Hawk. Then again watching the US acquire military equipment is making Indian decision-making look agile. But the Indian decision to downselect European combat aircraft does raises …
China and Rare Earths
May 3, 2011
Although I became acutely aware of the potential of the REE export restrictions threat in 2007 through research for a U.S. government entity, the increasing demand for rare earths in advanced electronics applications and an increasingly competitive supplier base were …
A High-Low Mix of Technology for the Pacific Engagement
May 3, 2011
“STAND, GENTLEMEN, HE SERVED ON SAMAR.” On October 20, 1901, a battalion of marines began what could be considered America’s first foreign counterinsurgency campaign (COIN) on the island of Samar, in the Philippines. It was brutal harsh and very nasty …
China’s “Economic War” Considerations
May 2, 2011
When Bill Clinton came to the presidency in 1993, he noted that the next world war would be economic. Since that time up through 2008, U.S. military expenditures were $6.023 trillion, whereas China spent only $667.1 billion on its military …
Impact of Indian Fighter Competition
May 2, 2011
India is clearly a key player in shaping the future of Chinese power, globally and in the Pacific. At the same time, the significant 2nd and 3rd world fighter market will be dominated by exports from China, Russia, India or …
The Pacific Dimension: Sizing the Challenge
April 21, 2011
The key to understanding any human conflicts in the Pacific is to first recognize both the natural power and size of that Ocean.
The Chinese Science and Technology Challenge
April 21, 2011
Excerpts from an Interview with Mark Lewis, President, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics and Willis Young Professor and Chair, Department of Aerospace Engineering. Dr. Lewis is the former Chief Scientist of the Air Force under Secretaries James Roche and …
The Chinese Challenge
April 21, 2011
The ability of the Chinese to accelerate innovation in the air domain is quite impressive. They now have the ability to make major investments with the monies that are available from their economic growth for continued investment in research and development. That growth in the Chinese economy allows for investment in innovation.
Templates for Understanding the Chinese Challenge
April 21, 2011
A global shift in manufacturing capability towards China, a significant investment by China in global commodities and the enhanced presence of China on the world stage are all significant developments. When married to a growing investment in the development and fielding of military capabilities, something globally significant is afoot, of the sort which suggests changing epochs.
Military Begins To Contemplate The Impact Of America’s Deindustrialization
April 21, 2011
The U.S. military is starting to consider how China’s economic growth and the corresponding loss of important American high-tech industries might impact future national security. The Project on National Security Reform run by U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute, an independent academic group, has put together a “Vision Working Group” that is assessing various future possible military scenarios including how to deal with a more aggressive China if the United States does not have much left of an industrial base.