We have written several pieces over the past two years about the evolving strategy of Putin and how he has used his evolving military capability in the service of that strategy.
We have looked at his leveraging of the Ukraine crisis to put pressure on the Baltic states as well as his expanded footprint in the Middle East.
We have argued as well that Putin has become a key player in the Second Nuclear Age, both in terms of building new weapons, but also the use of nuclear threats as part of a broader Information War strategy.
In a recent piece by David Blair in The Telegraph, the author highlights how the Syrian war offers a chance for Putin to continue down the path of fracturing NATO.
When is a ceasefire not a ceasefire? Perhaps when it allows a blood-soaked tyrant to continue raining barrel bombs on his rebellious people. The “nationwide ceasefire” supposedly agreed for Syria belongs in a special category of futility.
Bashar al-Assad’s Russian friends made very sure that the truce signed in Munich does not stop anyone from attacking “terrorists” – and the dictator flatly maintains that he has never done anything else.
After all, Assad defines every Syrian who has ever opposed him as a “terrorist”. So the logic is inescapable: operations against “terrorists” are allowed, all Assad’s enemies are “terrorists”, therefore the regime’s onslaught can press on as normal.
Assad may now complete the encirclement of Aleppo and ravage the last enclave of northern Syria held by non-Islamist rebels – with Russia bombing from the air and Iran supplying fighters on the ground – and still obey the terms of the truce. As an example of supremely cynical diplomacy, the Munich ceasefire is in a class of its own.
In truth, the latest events in Syria are still more worrying. The tragedy now unfolding in and around Aleppo poses a direct threat to European security, combining the dangers of terrorism with the risk of direct conflict between Nato and Russia.
We tend to associate the latter peril with Nato’s most exposed European members and the possibility of Vladimir Putin invading the Baltic states. But never forget that Turkey is also part of Nato.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has already threatened to send Turkey’s army over the border into Syria, with the twin aims of preventing the defeat of his rebel allies and carving out a buffer zone along the frontier.
Suppose Mr Erdoğan were to go ahead and deploy his troops in Syria: the greatest risk would be that Russia responds with air strikes against Turkish forces.
How plausible is the following scenario?
After Russia bombs Turkish troops inside Syria, Mr Erdoğan deploys his air force to protect his ground units – and three Russian MiGs are shot down. Russia immediately retaliates by striking the air base inside Turkey used by the jets that destroyed the MiGs.
After one of his air force bases is pulverised by the Kremlin’s bombs, Mr Erdoğan then declares that Turkey has suffered aggression from Russia.
He demands the help of his allies in accordance with Article V of the North Atlantic Treaty, which states that an “armed attack against one” Nato member “shall be considered an attack against them all”.
Put bluntly, Mr Erdoğan could invite us to choose between going to war with Russia, or shredding the credibility of the collective security guarantee that serves as the bedrock of Nato.
How would we respond?
For the rest of the article, see the following:
For some our earlier pieces on Putin, NATO, and related issues. see the following:
http://www.sldinfo.com/putin-end-of-year-messages-the-next-steps-in-the-agenda/
http://www.sldinfo.com/putin-and-worst-case-nuclear-thinking-rhetoric-has-its-own-impact/
http://www.sldinfo.com/why-putins-showdown-with-the-west-worsen/
http://www.sldinfo.com/putin-phoenix-nato-in-play/
http://www.sldinfo.com/putin-looks-east-the-us-and-the-western-allies-struggle-with-a-response/
http://www.sldinfo.com/china-japan-and-us-responses-to-putin/
http://www.sldinfo.com/the-impact-of-crimean-history-the-danger-of-playing-one-upski-with-putin/
http://www.sldinfo.com/syria-and-the-russian-recovery-putin-on-center-stage/
http://www.sldinfo.com/beyond-crimean-annexation-the-russians-look-to-the-wider-mediterranean/
http://www.sldinfo.com/rethinking-nuclear-deterrence-shaping-a-way-ahead/
http://www.sldinfo.com/the-russian-re-set-how-the-syrian-intervention-alters-the-conflict/
http://www.sldinfo.com/russia-hybrid-war-and-the-evolution-of-europe/
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