The Russian Factor in the Second Nuclear Age

By SLD Team

The Russians continue to demonstrate the political utility of nuclear weapons.

The slicing off of Ukraine was a consequence of political subversion, strong political support from the Russian community within Ukraine, local military superiority and the possession of a strategic nuclear deterrent which provides for an ability to operate with some certainty of operational freedom.

But the Russians have built and modernize a significant tactical nuclear arsenal which is clearly designed to be deployed in support of their global interests.

Commander, U.S. Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM) Adm. Cecil D. Haney observes as 1st Lt. Matthew Carter, assigned to 9th Reconnaissance Wing (9RW) at Beale Air Force Base, tracks a simulated adversarial launch during Haney’s visit to 9RW. 9RW supports USSTRATCOM’s intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) mission area by organizing, training and equipping the Air Force’s fleet of U-2R Dragonlady, RQ-4 Global Hawk and MC-12 Liberty aircraft, which provide intelligence gathering, contingency operations, conventional war fighting and emergency war order support. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Byron C. Linder/Released) April 12, 2014.

Commander, U.S. Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM) Adm. Cecil D. Haney observes as 1st Lt. Matthew Carter, assigned to 9th Reconnaissance Wing (9RW) at Beale Air Force Base, tracks a simulated adversarial launch during Haney’s visit to 9RW. 9RW supports USSTRATCOM’s intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) mission area by organizing, training and equipping the Air Force’s fleet of U-2R Dragonlady, RQ-4 Global Hawk and MC-12 Liberty aircraft, which provide intelligence gathering, contingency operations, conventional war fighting and emergency war order support. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Byron C. Linder/Released) April 12, 2014.

In recent testimony before Congress, the head of STRATCOM discussed the role of Russian nuclear forces.

Admiral Cecil D. Haney (USN), Commander of U.S. Strategic Command, in an April 2nd House Armed Services Committee hearing on military funding authorization for 2015, briefed Congressmen on the modern status of Russian strategic nuclear forces:

The matter arose from a question posed by Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio):

TURNER: “How does Russia integrate the use of its nuclear weapons into its conventional war plans, as we look to, obviously, a Russia that is mobilizing for war, specifically as we looked at Crimea and the prospects of Ukraine?”

Turner then quoted from a Russian news source, about Russia’s recent three-day exercise of its strategic missile forces. Turner said, that the news source, “cited multiple Russian military officers,” who said that, the major purpose of the drill is to ensure that Russia has the readiness to conduct offensive operations involving the use of nuclear missiles.”

HANEY: Russia has maintained, and continues to modernize their strategic deterrent capability, and also, periodically, exercises both their command and control capability to communications, as well as—as we saw in 2013—quite frankly, Russia put a YouTube video out on one of their strategic operational nuclear force exercises, where they demonstrated back in September, October timeframe—every aspect of their capability. It—it did not make as much news as you described here today. But on a day-to-day basis, their—they exercise and have a readiness posture of their capability, which we monitor very closely.

TURNER: Could you talk a moment about the issue and their doctrine about de-escalation? Because we’ve heard in front of this committee testimony about their use of nuclear weapons to de-escalate a conflict, which we would consider to be an escalation of it.

HANEY: Well, Congressman Turner, I think it would be much more appropriate to have that kind of conversation in a closed hearing.

TURNER: Well, my point being, if — whatever you can say on the record, this certainly requires a public discussion of what our — our — our deterrent may be looking to. What can you tell us about Russia’s view versus our view?

HANEY: Well, Russia has, as I mentioned, been on a continuous modernization program of their capability. Not just fixed ICBM — intercontinental ballistic missile sites. For example, they have mobile ICBM missiles. They have been developing a new class of SSBM, as well. And they have exercised their strategic bomber capability frequently over the years, and continue to do so.

I would be remiss if I was to go deeper into their strategy and what we think in that regards. But, as noted, through our various arms control deliberations, and even in his public statements that have been made by President Putin, he has stated his—the importance of his strategic capabilities for the country of Russia.

Bill Gertz in a recent column focused on the Admiral’s testimony.

“Russia has maintained and continues to modernize their strategic deterrent capability,” Adm. Cecil Haney, the Stratcom commander told the House Armed Services Committee.

The blunt comments came in response to reports that Russian strategic nuclear forces recently held a large-scale nuclear exercise coinciding with saber-rattling conventional military deployments close to Russia’s eastern border with Ukraine.

Haney said the Russians conduct periodic nuclear war games and in 2013 produced a YouTube video that highlighted “every aspect of their capability.”

“But on a day-to-day basis, they exercise and have a readiness posture of their capability, which we monitor very closely,” Haney said.

State Department cables sent to Washington earlier this year included dire warnings that Russia is vastly increasing its nuclear arsenal under policies similar to those Moscow followed during the Soviet era.

The cables, according to officials familiar with them, also stated that the Russian strategic nuclear forces buildup appears aimed at achieving nuclear superiority over the United States and not nuclear parity.

The nuclear modernization has been “continuous” and includes adding fixed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and mobile ICBMs, along with a new class of strategic missile submarines, Haney said in testimony.

“Russia has articulated their value in having strategic capability, and as such, each area they have invested in both in terms of nuclear strategic capability as well as space capability and cyberspace capability in terms of things,” Haney said.

“And as a result, we have seen them demonstrate their capability through a variety of exercises and operations. They maintain their readiness of that capability on a continuous fashion. And it’s a capability I don’t see them backing away from.”

By contrast, Haney testified to the committee that U.S. nuclear forces are in urgent need of modernization to update aging nuclear weapons, delivery systems, and support and production infrastructure, most of which were made decades ago.

Under budget sequestration, which could be re-imposed in 2016, U.S. nuclear force modernization will be undermined.

Russia “drew down” some conventional military forces since the end of the Cold War but “the one area that they maintained was their strategic capability,” the four-star admiral said, adding: “Their modernization has been occurring over the last decade or so.”

While Moscow has been aggressively upgrading its nuclear forces, “in our case we have sustained existing programs,” he said…..

Rep. Michael Turner (R., Ohio) told Haney at the hearing that Russian actions in Ukraine should prompt the United States to quickly upgrade its nuclear forces.

“Putin has allowed us, in his most recent actions, to understand that we have been pursuing a false narrative with respect to Russia — both with respect to our conventional forces in Europe and our strategic forces,” Turner said.

“We now see that there have been some actions that Russia has been taking, specifically under the leadership of Putin, that perhaps we have ignored or that we have diminished in importance,” Turner added. “As we review those issues again, certainly our nuclear deterrent comes to mind as an issue that needs to be reviewed, in light of Russia’s actions and Russia’s doctrine…..”

Haney described the current security environment as “more complex, dynamic, and uncertain than at any time in recent history.”

“Nation states such as Russia and China are investing in long-term and wide-ranging military modernization programs to include extensive modernization of their strategic capabilities,” he stated in prepared testimony.

“Nuclear weapons ambitions and the proliferation of weapon and nuclear technologies continues, increasing risk that countries will resort to nuclear coercion in regional crises or nuclear use in future conflicts…..”

Rep. Doug Lamborn (R., Colo.) said that under the 2010 New START arms treaty with Russia, the United States cut its warhead arsenal by 103 while Russia increased its warheads.

“To me, it is a remarkable situation that we’re decreasing and they are increasing,” Lamborn said.

Haney responded by stating that Russia has a large tactical nuclear arsenal and that arms agreements so far were limited to strategic arms that have “come down appropriately” and allowed for information exchanges and other details of the strategic forces.

“But is the imbalance roughly 10-to-1 when it comes to tactical warhead and weapons?” Lamborn asked.

“I would rather not put a number to it in this open forum, sir,” Haney said.

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