Key Questions in the Indian Fighter Competition

By Robbin Laird

Downselects can take awhile in India. Just ask BAE about their experience with the Hawk.  Then again watching the US acquire military equipment is making Indian decision-making look agile.

But the Indian decision to downselect European combat aircraft does raises a number of core questions about the potential impacts on the global defense industry and geopolitics.

First, whichever European company or consortium wins will be in a key position to build a new manned fighter for Europe itself in the future.  There is significant potential for India and Europe to sort through a collaborative effort which will not just be about SELLING a fighter TO India, but rather reshaping European offerings to Europe in the future.

Second, assuming the Indian collaboration can yield a cost effective and capable product, such a product could become globally viable with significant 2nd and 3rd world sales opportunities.

Third, perhaps the Euro-Indian team could also anchor a version of the SAAB global offerings.  SAAB has offered a combat aircraft and a command and control aircraft and would clearly wish to add a UAV to the mix.  There is a potential to take the Euro-Indian team into such waters whereby sensors and weapons can be distributed across three platforms, unmanned, manned and C4ISR.

Fourth, the Chinese-Indian competition just ramped up in the aerospace field.  Now Europe will have an interesting problem managing the competition.  India would clearly like offsets from whomever will win which will embed European aerospace further into a partnership with India.  How will China respond to all of this?

Fifth, and not forgetting the United States: Will its offerings in India make it through the fumbling of the Obama Administration on technology transfer issues.  And let us be clear it is not about transferring technology it is about having a timely, transparent and well managed PROCESS to work with partners.  This appears to be missing in action.  The US Ambassador who has significant political ambitions hit the exit door as rapidly as possible, which certainly tells us something.

 

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